Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD buyers take a breather near $2,600, focus on Middle East geopolitical risks

• Gold price posts modest losses around $2,620 in Monday's early Asian session. 

• US Fed rate cut and geopolitical risks boost the precious metal.

• The positive view for US growth and stronger US economic data could weigh on the XAU/USD price. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory around $2,620 but remains near the all-time high on Monday during the early Asian session. An aggressive interest cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East lift the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. 

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) slashed its interest rates by a surprise 50 basis points (bps) last week following a two-day meeting and signaled that more cuts are likely before the end of 2024. A rate cut by the US Fed is likely to boost the appeal of the non-interest-bearing Gold price.  

Additionally, fears of an escalation of tensions in the Middle East after Hezbollah vows retaliation for a pager attack provide some support to the yellow metal price. Hezbollah and Israel exchanged heavy fire on Sunday, as the Lebanese militant group launched missiles deep into northern Israeli territory after facing some of the most intense bombardment in almost a year of conflict, per CNN. 

The upside of the precious metal might be capped by the Fed’s broadly positive outlook for US growth. The Fed forecasts that the US economy will expand about 2.0% per year until the end of 2027, suggesting a soft landing profile for the economy. This, in turn, might drag the safe-haven Gold lower. 

Looking ahead, Gold traders will closely monitor the development surrounding the Middle East geopolitical risks. Furthermore, the flash reading of the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be released later on Monday. In case of the stronger-than-expected outcome, this could underpin the Greenback and exert some selling pressure on the USD-denominated Gold price.