Elon Musk’s D.O.G.E dividends won’t benefit low-income Americans

Low-income Americans probably won’t see any checks from Elon Musk’s new dividend plan, according to James Fishback, a 30-year-old investor who came up with the idea last Wednesday.

James is CEO of Azoria, an investment company, and he said he got the whole idea straight from a dream he had. The dream basically showed him a way to send dividend checks to taxpayers using cash saved from Elon Musk’s project, the Department of Government Efficiency—better known as D.O.G.E.

James woke up, and within two-and-a-half hours, he and his lead researcher wrote a proposal explaining how this could work.

Elon saw it pretty fast and said he’d talk to Trump about it immediately. Sure enough, by Wednesday afternoon, Donald Trump himself stood on the stage at the FII Priority Summit in Miami Beach telling the crowd exactly what James had pitched.

Trump told everyone there’s now a serious consideration happening where they’d send out 20 percent of whatever D.O.G.E saves directly to US citizens, with another 20 percent going straight to paying off the national debt. “Because the numbers are incredible, Elon,” Trump said.

James later told NBC News exactly how quickly things moved. “We fleshed this thing out in about two and a half hours,” he explained on Sunday, “sent it directly to White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, got it to some admin folks, Treasury people too—and suddenly there we were, just one day later, with Elon passing the message straight to Trump.” James called the speed of all this “exciting.”

The idea itself isn’t totally new, since Trump did something similar during his first presidency, when the pandemic hit. That time, Americans got direct checks from the government, with Trump’s name printed right on them.

But this new dividend, James says, will have two key words printed on each check: “Trump” and “D.O.G.E.” He said every dividend check should clearly show Trump’s name, because that’s who leads the country, and D.O.G.E’s name, because that’s who’s actually responsible for saving the money.

James’s big idea works on a specific assumption—which is that Elon’s D.O.G.E would successfully cut around $2 trillion from government spending. If it hits that target, his plan would take $400 billion of those savings—that’s 20 percent—and distribute it evenly to about 79 million American households who actually pay taxes. James’s math shows each of these households would then get a check for about $5,000.

Will check with the President

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 18, 2025

Why poor Americans likely won’t get anything

But this is exactly where things get complicated for lower-income Americans. According to Pew Research Center, most Americans who earn under $40,000 don’t really pay federal taxes after refunds and credits. Under James’s plan, anyone who doesn’t pay more into federal taxes than they get back wouldn’t receive one of these checks. In other words, most lower-income Americans probably wouldn’t qualify for these dividends.

James also told NBC that, unlike previous stimulus checks sent out to just about everyone, this new dividend idea targets people who pay into the system. He thinks higher-income households tend to save checks like these instead of spending immediately, which he says would prevent any rise in inflation.

James even wrote in his proposal clearly, saying, “The D.O.G.E dividend is totally different from the stimulus checks people got from things like the 2021 American Rescue Plan.” James insisted there’s “nothing inflationary” about giving cash back specifically to net-taxpaying families who save or pay down debts. He argues that actually paying off debt is deflationary, meaning it might even lower prices overall.

But a lot of people aren’t convinced yet. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, talked to NBC News and said it’s way too early to promise any checks. Mark pointed out D.O.G.E hasn’t really proven yet if they’ve saved any serious amount of money at all. Elon initially claimed his D.O.G.E program would find $2 trillion worth of savings by mid-next year, but recently Elon himself seemed less sure about hitting that huge number.

Mark also pointed out if D.O.G.E doesn’t save much money, the checks would obviously shrink. If D.O.G.E only saves $1 trillion instead of $2 trillion, each check drops from $5,000 to around $2,500. And if the total savings are even lower—say, $500 billion—then checks become just $1,250 each. James admitted these lower amounts were possible but insisted they were still meaningful amounts.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, speaking Thursday at CPAC (the Conservative Political Action Conference), sounded cautious. Mike admitted giving every taxpayer a check might look good politically, but quickly pointed out that Republicans emphasize fiscal responsibility. Mike reminded reporters the US federal debt has already hit $36 trillion, with massive yearly deficits still piling up. Mike basically said paying off debt seemed more important right now than handing out dividends.

From the same CPAC stage Thursday, Elon confirmed he’d personally discussed James’s proposal with Trump, and that Trump liked it. Elon called it “something we’re going to do,” hinting strongly this dividend idea might become reality soon.

James himself traveled to Washington, D.C. this week to meet several important stakeholders he didn’t name publicly. He did share a quick video online showing himself briefly chatting with Elon about the proposal. During his trip, James said confidently that even if critics doubt D.O.G.E’s ability to reach $2 trillion in savings, he still thinks the checks will be significant.

When asked specifically about criticism over D.O.G.E’s reported savings, James directly told reporters, “For those folks who think D.O.G.E won’t reach $2 trillion total savings—we disagree. But let’s just pretend they’re right. Even at just $1 trillion, we’re still looking at $2,500 checks going out. If it drops even more, like down to $500 billion total savings, that’s still a $1,250 check. That’s real money.”

James also made clear it’s not really just about the exact dollar amount. He said it’s more about symbolism and about returning money as restitution to Americans—especially communities like East Baltimore or East Palestine—who he thinks suffered most from government waste.

Economist Mark, though, strongly disagreed that the proposed cuts wouldn’t have consequences. Mark explained clearly there’s no “free lunch” here, saying each government job cut by D.O.G.E would likely hurt the broader economy. According to Mark, the jobs James proposes cutting at agencies like the FAA, USAID, FTC, or FDA aren’t necessarily useless. Mark stressed it’s dangerous to assume all those positions don’t contribute to economic health.

Mark emphasized to NBC News that nobody, including James or Elon, actually knows exactly how valuable these jobs are to the long-term health of America’s economy. “That’s a pretty strong position to take,” Mark said, “that these jobs have no benefit and no importance in the long run, that they’re not doing things important to the economy and nation.” Mark made clear he doesn’t claim to know their exact worth, but argued clearly that nobody else does either.

D.O.G.E’s website currently claims they’ve saved $55 billion, though some numbers provided by D.O.G.E recently got questioned publicly. For example, one canceled contract with the Department of Homeland Security, listed as an $8 billion saving by D.O.G.E, actually turned out to be worth just $8 million. Mistakes like these have caused some economists and lawmakers to doubt how accurate D.O.G.E’s savings estimates really are.

Right now, James’s idea—sending taxpayer dividend checks funded by D.O.G.E savings—continues to gather attention and controversy. Elon publicly stands behind the idea. Trump says he likes it. James has traveled to Washington to discuss specifics. Still, several important people like Mike Johnson and economist Mark Zandi express huge doubts. Meanwhile, lower-income Americans continue waiting, uncertain if they’ll even qualify for these D.O.G.E dividends should they ever actually happen.

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