Bitcoin corre el riesgo de caer $ 20,000 al cerrar diciembre: lo que debe saber sobre Bitcoin esta semana
En las últimas semanas, Bitcoin exhibió un patrón de consolidación ascendente alrededor de la región de resistencia de $108,000. Esta fase se vio interrumpida por una mayor presión de venta y actividad de distribución por parte de los grandes participantes del mercado, lo que provocó una fuerte caída del 15%. El precio encontró soporte en aproximadamente $90,000, coincidiendo con el límite medio de un canal de precios alcista de larga data. Esta zona representa una línea crítica de defensa contra correcciones más profundas. El análisis técnico destaca que un rebote desde los niveles de soporte actuales podría allanar el camino para un nuevo intento de recuperar la marca de los 108.000 dólares. Por el contrario, no mantener el soporte puede resultar en una corrección más significativa, con el límite inferior del canal cerca de $75,000 emergiendo como el siguiente nivel de soporte clave. Como se ve en el gráfico diario de BTC, ha surgido un soporte temporal cerca de la línea de tendencia inferior en $94,164, alineándose con los promedios móviles clave. Los indicadores sugieren un posible rebote a corto plazo; sin embargo, el sentimiento general sigue siendo más bien bajista que no. Los datos recientes de TradingView reflejan la lucha actual de Bitcoin , con el BTC/USD aún por debajo de $13,000 desde los máximos históricos de la semana pasada. Según el comerciante y analista Rekt Capital, BTC ha formado una formación de velas envolventes bajistas en el gráfico semanal. Este desarrollo, junto con la pérdida de niveles de soporte semanales críticos, señala el final de una tendencia alcista de cinco semanas. #BTC Gráficos de negociación intradiaria Bitcoin : consolidación ascendente y retroceso reciente
Los indicadores bajistas pesan sobre la acción del precio
Se ha perdido el soporte semanal (azul)
Se acabó la tendencia alcista técnica de 5 semanas (naranja)
Bitcoin muestra signos cada vez mayores de transición hacia una corrección de varias semanas
Cualquier recuperación de alivio, si es necesaria, hacia estos viejos soportes podría convertirlos en una nueva resistencia a... https://t.co/ZpfhWCtdt6 pic.twitter.com/U7d2zGOnpf
Rekt Capital further warned of Bitcoin’s potential transition into a multi-week correction phase. Any relief rally may face resistance at previously lost support levels, reinforcing the likelihood of additional downside continuation.
Indicators such as the RSI (14), currently at 42, show mild recovery but remain in bearish territory. Similarly, the Stochastic RSI’s bullish cross in the oversold region suggests short-term upward momentum, though the MACD’s bearish crossover persists, indicating weakening momentum.
Holiday trading periods often introduce heightened volatility due to reduced liquidity in the market. As liquidity profiles thin during these out-of-hours trading sessions, price movements can become exaggerated.
Market commentator Mark Cullen identified two critical liquidity zones into 2025: $115,000 and sub-$80,000. He questioned which level would be tested first and suggested the potential for significant price swings to target both.
A drop to $80,000 would align with historical bull market corrections. Glassnode’s data indicates that prior Bitcoin cycles experienced dips of 20% or more on the path to new all-time highs.
Interestingly, the severity of #Bitcoin drawdowns during bull market uptrends has declined as the market grows. The deepest drawdown this cycle was -32% (Aug 5, 2024), with most corrections only -25% below local highs, reflecting spot ETF demand & rising institutional interest. pic.twitter.com/wpanco629S
— glassnode (@glassnode) December 21, 2024
Despite the current cycle’s relative stability, the deepest drawdown of -32% in August 2024 echoes the crypto’s inherent volatility. Spot ETF demand and rising institutional interest have also tempered with price fluctuations, as the market seems to be sensitive to macroeconomic shifts.
On-chain metrics: Network activity is less than previous highs
Bitcoin’s active addresses, a key on-chain metric, reveal a divergence between price action and network activity. While the 100-day moving average of active addresses has rebounded, it has yet to reach its all-time high. This discrepancy suggests that a prolonged correction could occur if network activity declines further.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut of 0.25% dampened risk-asset sentiment. Bitcoin, along with other cryptocurrencies, experienced renewed pressure as the prospect of additional rate cuts diminished.
According to analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, BTC’s price is exhibiting a notable correlation with the global money supply (Global M2). Historically, Bitcoin prices have followed Global M2 with a lag of approximately 10 weeks.
Over the past two months, Global M2 has dropped by $4.1 trillion, from a record $108.5 trillion in October to $104.4 trillion in December, the lowest level since August.
This decline signals potential downward pressure on Bitcoin prices if the trend persists. The Kobeissi Letter highlighted the significance of this relationship, saying:
“As global money supply hit a new record of $108.5 trillion in October, Bitcoin prices reached an all-time high of $108,000. Over the last two months, however, money supply has dropped by $4.1 trillion. If the relationship still holds, this suggests that Bitcoin prices could fall as much as $20,000 over the next few weeks.”
Despite macroeconomic headwinds, BTC’s growing illiquid supply offers a counterbalance. André Dragosch of Bitwise highlighted this trend, noting that a higher illiquid supply indicates increased scarcity, which could support Bitcoin’s price.
While macro factors continue to exert downward pressure, on-chain tailwinds from Bitcoin’s supply deficit may mitigate the impact.
Dragosch expects BTC to remain volatile in early 2025 but believes the scarcity dynamics driven by its illiquid supply could provide attractive buying opportunities for long-term investors.
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