La tasa de inflación al consumidor de China sigue siendo más baja de lo proyectado mientras las preocupaciones por la guerra comercial pesan sobre la economía
La Oficina Nacional de Estadísticas informó que la inflación al consumidor de China en noviembre se desaceleró de lo proyectado, aumentando sólo un 0,2% en comparación con el año pasado. Los analistas encuestados por Reuters esperaban que los precios de noviembre aumentaran un 0,5% en lugar del 0,3% de octubre.
El índice de precios al productor de China cayó por vigésimo sexto mes consecutivo, con una caída del 2,5% en noviembre inferior al 2,8% previsto por los analistas en la encuesta de Reuters. La caída de los precios de fábrica también fue menor en comparación con el mismo período del año pasado. La inflación subyacente, que excluyó los volátiles precios de los combustibles y los alimentos, subió un 0,3% en noviembre desde el 0,2% de octubre.
Año tras año, los precios de la carne de cerdo y las verduras frescas aumentaron un 13,7% y un 10%, respectivamente. Los precios de los materiales metálicos ferrosos cayeron un 7,1%, lo que provocó una caída del índice de precios de compra de los productores industriales. Las materias primas químicas se desplomaron un 5%, mientras que el combustible y la energía registraron una caída del 6,5%.
Los expertos creen que la deflación de China continuará en medio de guerras comerciales
Los precios al consumidor de China suben menos de lo esperado a medida que la economía se desacelera en medio de preocupaciones por la guerra comercial https://t.co/rC1SLLfQVd
- CNBC (@CNBC) 9 de diciembre de 2024
Erica Tay, the director of macro research at Maybank, said that China’s PPI deflation still seemed ‘quite entrenched’ although it had narrowed slightly. She told CNBC that accumulated producer inputs and finished goods inventories were sizable and grew from month to month.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report, persistent near-zero retail inflation showed that China’s economy struggled with low domestic demand as wholesale prices remained deflationary. Domestic demand remained sluggish despite Beijing’s series of stimulus efforts since September, which included interest rate cuts, support for stock and property markets, and efforts to incentivize bank lending.
“We believe deflation will continue in China, especially based on the previous experience during trade wars.”
~ Becky Liu, Head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank
Liu said that PPI inflation typically fell to negative territory during trade wars, referencing the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. She pointed out that the situation was no different, adding that China’s producer price index inflation was likely to remain negative the following year.
Goldman Sachs predicts that China’s near-zero CPI figures will continue into 2025
The investment bank’s analysts similarly projected that China’s near-zero consumer price index figures would persist next year. The analysts, however, noted that some parts of the economy showed signs of recovery. China reported strong retail sales growth in October, beating expectations from Reuters analysts. In November, the second-largest economy in the world also showed expansion in manufacturing activities for two months in a row, according to Goldman Sachs.
According to CNBC, top Chinese leaders are expected to meet at the Central Economic Work Conference starting December 11th to discuss 2025’s stimulus measures and economic goals.
On December 9th, Fitch Ratings reduced their forecast of China’s 2025 GDP growth from 4.5% to 4.3%. The credit rating agency adjusted its September projections for 2026 growth downwards from 4.3% to 4%. Brian Coulton, Fitch Ratings Chief Economist, assumed that the U.S. trade policies towards China would take a sharp ‘projectionist turn’ for 2025 and 2026. He noted that an extended decline in the property market posed a critical risk to the agency’s forecast, although there were ‘tentative signs of stabilization’.
Notably, China will report its November trade data and retail sales on December 10th and December 16th, respectively.
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