La economía de la India se expande un 5,4% en el último trimestre y no cumple las expectativas
La economía de la India creció sólo un 5,4% durante su segundo trimestre fiscal que finalizó en septiembre. El lento crecimiento estuvo un 1,1% por debajo de las estimaciones de los economistas en una encuesta de Reuters, un 1,4% por debajo de la predicción del banco central y cerca de un mínimo de dos años.
La agencia de estadísticas del país registró un lento crecimiento en los sectores de minería (-0,1%) y manufactura (2,2%). La agencia también observó un crecimiento del VAB nominal del 8,1% y un crecimiento del VAB real del 5,6% en el segundo trimestre del año fiscal 2024-25. La débil expansión del PIB podría potencialmente impactar negativamente la trayectoria de las tasas de interés del país, informó CNBC. Está previsto que el Comité de Política Monetaria del Banco de la Reserva de la India se reúna el próximo mes.
Los economistas predicen que la economía de la India se desacelerará en 2025
La economía de la India se expandió un 5,4% en su segundo trimestre fiscal que finalizó en septiembre, muy por debajo de las estimaciones de los economistas. https://t.co/QrxylCULx4 pic.twitter.com/3yf4sP8qf0
- CNBC Internacional (@CNBCi) 29 de noviembre de 2024
Alicia Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis, predicted that India’s economy would slow in 2025 but not collapse. She added that Natixis had a growth projection of at least 6.4% for India in 2025. Herrero, however, did not clarify whether the forecast referred to fiscal or calendar year but pointed out that the print could also come in as low as 6%. She qualified it as ‘not a bit of a problem, but not welcome.’
Herrero also claimed that India was not really at the center of China’s reshuffling of the value chain when asked how she thought the country’s economy would fare under Trump’s incoming government.
“If I were the Trump administration, I would start [looking at tariffs for] Vietnam. That’s a much more obvious case.”
–Alicia Herrero
Herrero pointed out that China could make products in India for Indian consumption instead of exporting them. She added that this could help New Delhi avoid being hit by tariffs.
Reserve Bank of India worries about more than just food inflation
According to the Economic Times, food inflation remained a persistent problem for the Reserve Bank of India. Governor Shaktikanta Das and his colleagues at the Monetary Policy Committee often viewed it as a critical factor in their rate-cutting decisions. The latest RBI bulletin, however, highlighted the gradual rise in core inflation as a new concern. The central bank pointed out troubling signs in India’s October CPI inflation in its ‘State of the Economy’ report. It noted that the increase in core inflation had raised its cautionary stance.
Staples and essential products largely defied the slowdown in consumption. They showed double-digit growth in volume sales. Industry executives reportedly implied that this was an indication of consumers maintaining their spending on daily household essentials. Notably, unlike in previous downturns, it offered hope for a recovery in demand.
According to market researchers NielsenIQ and Kantar, volume sales of packaged goods like spices, pulses, edible oils, toothpaste, atta, and rice grew in the second quarter. Most companies, such as Adani Wilmar, Colgate, and Tata Consumer Products, expected this trend to continue into the October – December quarter.
A Systematix Institutional Equities report noted that the recovery in consumer demand that started back last month is still fueling optimism for a strong second half of FY25.
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