Los mercados financieros no confían en la capacidad del Banco de Inglaterra para frenar la inflación
Según un informe del Financial Times, el Banco de Inglaterra (BoE) enfrentó dudas por parte de los mercados financieros sobre su capacidad para cumplir su objetivo de inflación del 2%. El informe reveló que, si bien las cifras reales del banco central del Reino Unido mostraban un progreso positivo en el control de la inflación, los mercados financieros seguían siendo escépticos ante las proyecciones oficiales del Banco de Inglaterra.
El año pasado, el Banco de Inglaterra predijo que la inflación estaría en el 3%, ya que tanto las tasas de interés como el desempleo se mantendrían por encima del 5% para fines de 2024. Sin embargo, la situación resultó más positiva cuando el informe reveló que la inflación se acercó al objetivo del 2%. mientras que las tasas de interés cayeron al 4,75% y el desempleo fue bajo, del 4,3%.
El Banco de Inglaterra lucha contra las dudas del mercado en medio de persistentes presiones inflacionarias
Los mercados financieros del Reino Unido no esperan que el Banco de Inglaterra alcance su objetivo de inflación del 2%.
Eso es internacionalmente inusual.
Esperan que la inflación promedie el 3% durante los próximos 50 años aproximadamente...
…¿Qué está pasando?
Mi último https://t.co/QBLYhH9g6T
Regístrate https://t.co/9W1LiN2e7a pic.twitter.com/S0KtPvinOu
- Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) 26 de noviembre de 2024
Clare Lombardelli, the BoE’s deputy governor for monetary policy, gave a speech yesterday at the annual BoE watchers’ conference seeking to address issues about the central bank’s credibility, policy, and forecasting. However, her speech gave several explanations for the market’s persistent belief in higher UK inflation, including doubt about RPI change.
Despite the seemingly good inflationary outcome, Lombardelli declared it was too early to declare victory on inflation. She noted that the outlook on salaries and services inflation was ‘unclear from here’ because the pace of wage growth was not slowing as much as expected.
Lombardelli warned the conference that a scenario in which companies and workers get used to wage rises of 3.5% to 4% and price inflation of 3% would be more costly to change if it becomes entrenched. However, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research think tank predicted that inflation in the UK could rise to 3% in 2025.
“But at this point, I am more worried about the possible consequences if the upside materialised, as this could require a more costly monetary policy response.”
– Clare Lombardelli
Lombardelli said that she supported the gradual removal of monetary policy restrictions and would be monitoring the flow of data over the coming months so that the BoE could calibrate its policy path as needed.
Lombardelli addresses market doubts as other experts weigh in on the UK’s economic outlook
Lombardelli acknowledged the financial markets’ concerns and said the BoE was working to improve its forecasting models. While she admitted that the BoE’s efforts to improve its models were ongoing, Lombardelli confirmed that the changes in how the UK’s central bank predicted the future would be huge.
She expressed a ‘hawkish’ view on inflation, suggesting that the risks of inflation lasting for too long outweighed the risks of lower inflation. Her colleague on the monetary policy committee, Swati Dhingra, shared most of her sentiments but viewed the risks differently.
Overall, Lombardelli disclosed that the BoE was planning to gradually reduce its monetary policy until it had more information about inflation’s behavior. She also outlined the central bank’s plan to implement reforms suggested by Ben Bernanke, a former U.S. Fed chair and Nobel Prize winner.
Ian Harnett, chief investment strategist at Absolute Strategy Research, argued that central banks should aim to bring inflation down after periods of high inflation. DeAnne Julius, former UK monetary policy committee member, emphasized that the UK could face stagflation since the general economic outlook was more pessimistic.
Martin Sandbu argued that Europe needed to save less and suggested different policy changes to achieve this. He pointed out that many of the suggested policy changes were unpopular with the BoE.
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