印度上季度经济增长5.4%未达预期
印度经济在截至 9 月的第二财季仅增长 5.4%。缓慢的增长速度比路透调查中经济学家的预期低1.1%，比央行的预测低1.4%，接近两年来的低点。
该国统计机构记录采矿业（-0.1%）和制造业（2.2%）增长缓慢。该机构还指出，2024-25 财年第二季度名义 GVA 增长 8.1%，实际 GVA 增长 5.6%。据 CNBC 报道，GDP 扩张疲软可能对该国的利率轨迹产生负面影响。印度储备银行货币政策委员会定于下个月举行会议。
经济学家预测印度经济2025年将放缓
印度经济在截至 9 月的第二财季增长了 5.4%，远低于经济学家的预期。 https://t.co/QrxylCULx4 pic.twitter.com/3yf4sP8qf0
— CNBC 国际 (@CNBCi) 2024 年 11 月 29 日
Alicia Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis, predicted that India’s economy would slow in 2025 but not collapse. She added that Natixis had a growth projection of at least 6.4% for India in 2025. Herrero, however, did not clarify whether the forecast referred to fiscal or calendar year but pointed out that the print could also come in as low as 6%. She qualified it as ‘not a bit of a problem, but not welcome.’
Herrero also claimed that India was not really at the center of China’s reshuffling of the value chain when asked how she thought the country’s economy would fare under Trump’s incoming government.
“If I were the Trump administration, I would start [looking at tariffs for] Vietnam. That’s a much more obvious case.”
–Alicia Herrero
Herrero pointed out that China could make products in India for Indian consumption instead of exporting them. She added that this could help New Delhi avoid being hit by tariffs.
Reserve Bank of India worries about more than just food inflation
According to the Economic Times, food inflation remained a persistent problem for the Reserve Bank of India. Governor Shaktikanta Das and his colleagues at the Monetary Policy Committee often viewed it as a critical factor in their rate-cutting decisions. The latest RBI bulletin, however, highlighted the gradual rise in core inflation as a new concern. The central bank pointed out troubling signs in India’s October CPI inflation in its ‘State of the Economy’ report. It noted that the increase in core inflation had raised its cautionary stance.
Staples and essential products largely defied the slowdown in consumption. They showed double-digit growth in volume sales. Industry executives reportedly implied that this was an indication of consumers maintaining their spending on daily household essentials. Notably, unlike in previous downturns, it offered hope for a recovery in demand.
According to market researchers NielsenIQ and Kantar, volume sales of packaged goods like spices, pulses, edible oils, toothpaste, atta, and rice grew in the second quarter. Most companies, such as Adani Wilmar, Colgate, and Tata Consumer Products, expected this trend to continue into the October – December quarter.
A Systematix Institutional Equities report noted that the recovery in consumer demand that started back last month is still fueling optimism for a strong second half of FY25.
A Step-By-Step System To Launching Your Web3 Career and Landing High-Paying Crypto Jobs in 90 Days.
推荐文章
