From Job Markets to Consumer Confidence: The Self-Inflicted Costs of Trump’s Tariff Policies Emerge

TradingKey — While U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly blamed the Biden administration for leaving him an economic "mess," recent data suggests that Trump’s own policies may not guarantee better employment or economic outcomes.

On Tuesday, March 25, the Conference Board reported that the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index fell to 92.9 in March, down from 98.3 in February, and missing expectations of 94.2. This marks the index’s fourth consecutive monthly decline.

Most notably, the Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook for the next six months, plunged nearly 10 points to 65.2, breaking below the critical threshold of 80 and hitting its lowest level in nearly 12 years. Respondents’ confidence in their future financial situation also dropped to its weakest since July 2022.

In a statement, Conference Board economists highlighted that consumers’ optimism about future income — which had held up quite strongly in the past few months — largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations.

Earlier this month, data revealed that U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew by just 151,000 in February, missing market forecasts. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, its the highest since November 2024.

Analysts argue that the worsening economic indicators are partly linked to Trump’s tariff policies, as new trade barriers have rekindled fears of inflationary pressures and a potential recession.

The Conference Board survey also indicated that respondents had mixed views on the current administration and its policies, which they cited as a key influence on their economic outlook. 

Overall, consumers increasingly cited economic and policy uncertainty as top concerns. Inflation remains the primary worry, while concerns about trade policies and the impact of tariffs are rising sharply.