USD: Positioning data shows a split in activity – ING

It's been a quiet start to the week in financial markets, with cross-market levels of volatility falling. There has not been too much tariff-related news over the weekend, although it does seem US consumers could soon start to feel the bite. Reports suggest that Chinese fashion retailer Shein is raising prices for US consumers by up to 300%, while logistics groups are starting to report a slump in US air freight and container imports, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

DXY to edge up to the 100.00/100.25 area

"For FX markets, the focus this week will be on how much this tariff stress has hit real-world decision-making. Data highlights of the week include the first look at first-quarter GDP and the April jobs report on Friday. On GDP, consensus is around 0.4% quarter-on-quarter annualised, but the range of expectations is wide at +1% to -1%, depending on how economists feel the sharp front-loading of imports will be offset against some positive investment trends."

"When it comes to FX positioning data, last week's data from Chicago seems to confirm anecdotal reports that fast money/hedge funds have been taking profits on dollar short positions, while the buy side continues to sell dollars. The latter may also have a big say in price action this week, should investment committees have recently taken decisions to cut USD exposure. Looking out for fixing flows, especially around the 4:00pm UK WMR fix."

"The data calendar is exceptionally quiet today, but lower volatility levels slightly favour higher equity markets and perhaps an uptick in the dollar too. We think there is still room for DXY to edge up to the 100.00/100.25 area – but that may be enough for this week."