Cardano Founder: Ethereum Won’t Survive The Next 10 To 15 Years

In his latest ask-me-anything session streamed on April 23, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson delivered a sweeping critique of Ethereum’s long-term prospects, arguing that the world’s second-largest smart-contract platform is encumbered by what he called three “self-inflicted wounds” and lacks the on-chain governance needed to heal them.

Ethereum Faces 15-Year Deadline: Cardano Founder

Responding to an audience question—“If you were running the Ethereum Foundation, what would you do differently?”—Hoskinson said the project chose “the wrong accounting model, the wrong virtual machine, and the wrong consensus model,” a triad of design decisions he believes now threaten Ethereum’s survival. “People told them not to do it, they did it, and they got where they needed to go,” he said, before warning that the fixes adopted so far “put in all these weird slashing economics and layer twos and other things,” whose unintended consequences are starting to bite.

Hoskinson, who co-founded Ethereum in 2014 before leaving to launch Cardano two years later, insisted that a viable turnaround would require parallel workstreams. “First off, you have to solve your technological problems,” he said, pointing to Ethereum’s proof-of-stake implementation as something the network “needs to wean itself off of.”

He suggested a shift to what he called a “telescoping protocol design” such as Ouroboros-Leios—Cardano’s forthcoming upgrade path—and urged Ethereum developers to look at the “object model of SWE,” along with Narwhal-and-Tusk-style consensus, and a move to the RISC-V instruction set. “Something like RISC-V with intent, with an object model like SWE, probably would fit their ecosystem quite well,” he argued.

Yet the bigger obstacle, in Hoskinson’s view, is Ethereum’s lack of formalized self-governance. “They really don’t have a good on-chain governance system,” he said. Building one, he estimates, would take “five to seven years” given the network’s size and entrenched stakeholders. Without it, he warned, protocol upgrades and community coordination will remain fragile.

Hoskinson’s most pointed forecast came midway through the session: “I don’t think Ethereum will survive more than 10 years to 15 years.” He predicted that layer-2 networks will continue to “suckle out all of the alpha,” eroding the base chain’s utility while sparking internal conflict that will grow “harder and harder for Vitalik to be able to hold […] together through sheer force of will.”

He also contended that a revitalized Bitcoin ecosystem by Cardano’s efforts and faster monolithic chains could outcompete Ethereum on both liquidity and user experience. “Once [Bitcoin DeFi] turns on, the TVL will be larger than Ethereum […] and the other thing is they’re being eaten alive by Solana and SUI and these other things,” he said, likening Ethereum’s predicament to companies such as MySpace and BlackBerry that struggled to pivot when “fundamentally different paradigms […] creep up on you.”

Hoskinson also contrasted Ethereum’s roadmap with Cardano’s own. He highlighted Cardano’s RISC-V-based virtual machine, its extended UTXO accounting, and its “non-parasitic” approach to layer-2 scaling—namely Hydra and the Midnight sidechain—as evidence that Cardano already embodies the architectural decisions he is urging Ethereum to adopt.

Hoskinson conceded that some of Cardano’s governance tooling is “kind of weird now,” but maintained it will be “awesome in three to five years.” By contrast, he warned, Ethereum’s transition would be slower and more contentious, giving alternative platforms time to attract developers and liquidity. “Users will gradually migrate to other places and then they’re gonna get eclipsed by Bitcoin DeFi,” he said.

The remarks come at a sensitive moment for Ethereum, which completed its proof-of-stake merge 18 months ago and is preparing for upgrades aimed at lowering transaction costs and boosting throughput. Hoskinson’s comments are unlikely to sway Ethereum’s core developers, but they underscore a growing debate over whether modular, rollup-centric roadmaps can maintain network coherence as competing ecosystems evolve.

Asked to sum up his outlook, Hoskinson reverted to first principles. “A brilliant project,” he said of Ethereum, “it’s just [a] victim of its own success.” Without decisive architectural and governance reforms, he concluded, the platform risks “a very hostile divorce” between the base layer and its scaling solutions and, ultimately, obsolescence within the coming decade.

At press time, ADA traded at $0.6872.