Global shock from Trump’s tariffs is about to be felt this week

Three weeks after President Donald Trump’s opening shots of a worldwide trade war, the first hard numbers on the damage are arriving. 

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund is expected to cut its global growth outlook. “Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession,” Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday. She added, “We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries. We will caution that protracted high uncertainty raises the risk of financial‑market stress.”

The IMF announcement, delivered blocks from the White House, opens a week packed with reports that will test the impact of tariffs on global trade. 

Finance chiefs from the Group of 20 gather in Washington at the same time. Georgieva urged them to seek “a more resilient world economy, not a drift to division,” calling the talks “a vital forum for dialogue at a vital time.”

United States and Canada

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on Wednesday will offer ground‑level stories about how firms are coping with higher tariffs and redrawn supply lines. 

Earlier that day, officials are expected to show a small rise in March new‑home sales. Mortgage rates have hovered above 6.5 percent since October, so builders have been offering discounts and upgrades to coax buyers. Data on existing‑home resales follow on Thursday.

In Canada, the election campaign enters its last week with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals about five points ahead, close to the majority line, even as U.S. trade tension weighs on factories in Ontario and Alberta.

Asia‑Pacific

China will set its loan prime rates on Monday; economists see no change after stronger first‑quarter growth. Indonesia will post March trade data showing conditions before the U.S. measures took effect, while the Philippines is likely to record another balance‑of‑payments surplus for the month.

On Tuesday, New Zealand will release March trade numbers, and Taiwan and Hong Kong will publish employment data. 

A day later, Bank Indonesia is expected to keep its key rate steady for a third meeting to support the rupiah, one of Asia’s worst‑performing currencies this year.

Europe, the Middle East, and Africa

Most European markets close on Monday for a holiday, and many central bankers will be in Washington. Euro‑area consumer‑confidence data will arrive on Tuesday, followed by the European Central Bank’s survey of professional forecasters. 

The ECB wage tracker due Wednesday points to slower pay gains after President Christine Lagarde cut rates last week.

Germany’s Ifo survey of business confidence will arrive on Thursday, showing how companies view the tariff shock and the new coalition agreement. Similar sentiment gauges from France are due Friday.

The Swiss National Bank will report its first‑quarter earnings on Thursday, and President Martin Schlegel will address its annual meeting a day later.

Latin America

Argentina, fresh from a 20 billion‑dollar financing deal with the IMF that brings 12 billion dollars up front, releases February economic‑activity data on Tuesday. 

Colombia will post February numbers after January’s growth surprised analysts and led some to raise 2025 forecasts.

Paraguay’s central bank may lift its policy rate above the current 6 percent after inflation jumped 100 basis points in four months to 4.4 percent. 

Brazil’s mid‑month inflation report for April is due Friday; if March is a guide, the headline rate could move further beyond the top of the central bank’s target. Mexico ends the week with February economic‑activity figures and a mid‑month consumer‑price update.

What to expect next?

Georgieva says the IMF does not expect a global recession, yet the run of data will give the clearest picture so far of how quickly the tariff fight is filtering through spending, hiring, and prices. Investors and officials will scan every report for clues on whether the world economy can absorb the shock or whether deeper cracks are forming. Markets will react as numbers come into focus soon.

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