Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Face Deep Losses – Early Bear Market Conditions Emerging?

Bitcoin is trading at a critical juncture after several days of consolidation, ranging between $83,000 and $86,000. Despite brief attempts to break out, the price continues to stall, with neither bulls nor bears able to take full control. This indecision reflects the broader uncertainty gripping global financial markets as macroeconomic tensions, including the ongoing trade conflict between the US and China, keep investors on edge.

With no clear catalyst in sight, Bitcoin remains directionless, stuck below key moving averages and unable to reclaim the $90,000 level that many view as the threshold for a confirmed uptrend. At the same time, strong support around $81,000 has held so far, suggesting that long-term holders still provide a strong base of conviction.

According to Glassnode, unrealized losses normalized by percentage drawdown reveal that Short-Term Holders are already carrying significant losses—levels that resemble early bear market conditions in previous cycles. This data point suggests a fragile market structure where further downside pressure could trigger broader capitulation, or, conversely, a sharp rebound if sentiment shifts. For now, Bitcoin’s price remains compressed, and traders are watching closely for the breakout that will define the next major move.

Bitcoin Consolidation Continues Amid Volatility And Uncertainty

Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase after enduring weeks of prolonged selling pressure and heightened volatility. The broader macroeconomic landscape remains hostile, with global tensions deepening as US President Donald Trump continues to escalate his trade war with China.

Although a 90-day tariff pause was announced last week for all countries except China, the move has done little to calm investor fears. The standoff between the world’s two largest economies continues to influence risk appetite, dragging on traditional markets and crypto alike.

On-chain data from Glassnode reveals that Bitcoin’s unrealized losses, when normalized by percentage drawdown, show that Short-Term Holders are already experiencing substantial losses. These levels are consistent with the early stages of previous bear markets, suggesting that downside risk remains elevated. While this does not confirm the start of a full-blown bear market, it highlights the vulnerability in the current structure. Until a major breakout or breakdown occurs, Bitcoin remains in limbo.

Bitcoin is currently trading below key moving averages, unable to reclaim momentum despite bouncing from short-term support levels. This signals a market still dominated by uncertainty and lacking a decisive catalyst. The $90K level remains a critical threshold that bulls must reclaim to shift sentiment, while the $81K region is acting as a crucial floor for now.

BTC Price Struggles Below Key levels As Market Awaits Confirmation

Bitcoin is currently trading at $84,900 after spending several days ranging just below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) around $85,000. Despite holding above the $83,000 support zone, bulls have failed to reclaim key moving averages that would signal renewed momentum. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently around $88,000, remains the primary resistance level that must be cleared for a true recovery rally to begin.

The price action suggests indecision as buyers hesitate to commit amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and global tensions. BTC’s inability to close convincingly above the EMA keeps the market in a state of cautious optimism. Bulls need to reclaim both the 200-day EMA and the 200-day SMA to confirm a bullish trend shift and attempt a retest of the $90,000 mark.

However, failure to hold above the $83,000 level could trigger a new wave of selling. If bears regain control and push BTC below this zone, a move toward $80,000—or potentially lower—becomes increasingly likely. For now, the market remains in a tight consolidation range, and traders are watching closely for a breakout in either direction. A decisive move will likely shape Bitcoin’s next major trend.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView