Ethereum Supply On Exchanges Plummets – Is A Supply Squeeze Coming?

Ethereum is down 55% from its December high, reflecting the broader weakness that has hit the crypto market amid escalating global uncertainty. Much of the recent pressure comes from US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies and unpredictable economic stance, which have rattled investor confidence and driven a risk-off sentiment across financial markets. High-volatility assets like Ethereum have been particularly hard hit, with bulls struggling to hold critical support levels and sellers continuing to dominate short-term price action.

Despite the bearish outlook, on-chain data provides a glimmer of hope for Ethereum’s long-term prospects. According to CryptoQuant, Ethereum exchange reserves have been steadily declining since 2022 — a trend that suggests a continued reduction in available supply on centralized platforms. While this hasn’t translated into upward price action yet, it points to a potential supply squeeze once demand returns.

For now, ETH remains under pressure with no immediate signs of a reversal, but the shrinking exchange supply could set the stage for a strong rally if buying interest picks up. Until then, Ethereum continues to trade in a fragile state, with investors closely watching for signs of support or further breakdown in the coming weeks.

Ethereum Tests Critical Support As Exchange Supply Drops

Ethereum is testing critical demand levels as the market continues to lean bearish. After weeks of persistent selling pressure, ETH is now trading below the $1,800 level — a zone that many analysts view as a last line of defense before deeper losses. The broader macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging, with trade war fears and tightening financial conditions keeping risk assets under pressure.

Ethereum has been particularly weak since late February, when bulls lost control following the breakdown below $2,500. Since then, price action has steadily declined, and hopes for a bullish cycle have faded. Investor sentiment is fragile, and bulls have yet to show enough strength to reclaim broken support levels or initiate a meaningful recovery.

However, there are signs of long-term potential building beneath the surface. According to top analyst Quinten Francois, ETH supply on exchanges is plummeting. Shared via X, CryptoQuant data shows a significant downtrend in Ethereum held on centralized platforms — a signal that investors may be moving assets into cold storage, reducing sell-side pressure.

This ongoing decline in exchange supply historically precedes bullish breakouts. Once demand returns and price consolidates, the thin supply on exchanges could act as fuel for a sharp rally. While current conditions remain bearish, the structural reduction in available ETH offers a compelling setup for a future rebound.

For now, Ethereum must hold above the $1,750–$1,800 range to prevent a deeper slide, but long-term holders are watching closely for the moment when reduced supply meets renewed buying pressure.

ETH Trades Below Key Weekly Indicators

Ethereum is currently trading below both the weekly 200-day moving average (MA) around $2,500 and the exponential moving average (EMA) near $2,250 — key long-term indicators that now act as overhead resistance. This breakdown highlights the severity of the ongoing correction, with bulls under heavy pressure to prevent further losses. ETH is now flirting with its lowest weekly close since October 2023, adding to concerns that the downtrend could deepen if buyers fail to step in soon.

Momentum remains weak, and bullish attempts to recover have been short-lived, as macroeconomic instability and continued selling pressure weigh on the broader crypto market. For Ethereum to avoid further downside, it must hold the $1,800 level — a key demand zone and psychological threshold.

If bulls manage to defend this level and reclaim the $2,000 mark in the coming days, it could signal the beginning of a recovery rally. Reentering this range would shift sentiment and possibly trigger renewed buying interest. Until then, ETH remains vulnerable, and a close below $1,800 could open the door to a retest of lower support levels, potentially accelerating the decline if sentiment worsens further.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView