Coinbase stock underperforms in Q1 2025, worst record post FTX saga

Coinbase (COIN) shares declined by over 30% during the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, according to Bloomberg. This was primarily due to escalating concerns about the US economy and its impact on digital assets. The shares started 2025 trading at just over $257 on January 2nd and ended the quarter at a little over $172.

Coinbase Global Inc. shares and those of other firms linked to crypto assets plummeted this quarter as growing concerns about the US economy weighed on digital assets. Google Finance data revealed a drop of nearly 33%, making the first quarter of 2025 the worst for Coinbase’s stock performance since the collapse of FTX in November 2022. In Q4 of 2022, Coinbase’s share price went from $66 on October 3rd to $35.4 on December 30th, a loss of nearly 46.4%.

Coinbase is expected to release its 2025 financial statements in early May. The firm’s recent shareholder letter revealed that the company generated about $750M in transaction revenue through February 11th and expects subscription revenue of between $685M and $765M.

Coinbase drops by over 30% YTD amid market-wide decline

Google Finance showed that Coinbase shares fell 33% in Q1 of 2025, dropping from $257 on January 2 to $172 on March 31. The notable drop marked Coinbase’s worst quarter since Q4 2022 when its stock declined 46.4% following the FTX collapse. The decline was reflective of a broader trend affecting nearly all major crypto-linked stocks, including companies like Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY.TO), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and Core Scientific (CORZ).

TradingView data also revealed that Coinbase’s drop mirrored Bitcoin’s struggles, as the top crypto asset is set to close one of its weakest quarters with an 11% year-to-date loss despite a 16% gain over the past year. Ethereum (ETH) plummeted more than 45% in value.

“Many people in the community understand that this is not driven by fundamental reasons…This is mainly driven by the macro reasons because of the tariffs, potential trade war, people worried about a recession coming in.”

~ Owen Lau, Oppenheimer analyst 

Coinbase posted Q4 2024 earnings on February 13, 2025, reporting an EPS of $3.39, which beat analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.46 by $2.93. With a trailing EPS of $9.50 and a P/E Ratio of 18.35, Coinbase Global’s earnings are expected to grow 18.84% next year, from $7.22 to $8.58 per share. 

Crypto market downturn affects publicly traded companies

Most publicly traded crypto companies reported negative results in the first quarter of 2025. According to Yahoo Finance, the state of crypto markets was a far cry from the beginning of the year, when optimism was at a ‘fever pitch’ after Trump’s election. The S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) was also headed for the worst quarter since mid-2022 after a slate of economic data deepened concern on Friday. Consequently, traders have fled particularly quickly from risky bets, including digital assets. 

Lau also said that crypto-linked stocks were higher risk and more volatile than even Bitcoin itself, with an investment in a company carrying the added threat of bankruptcy. 

The pain extended beyond Coinbase, with Bitcoin miners also facing sharp declines this quarter. MARA Holdings (MARA) shed 31%, Riot Platforms (RIOT) fell over 30%, and Core Scientific (CORZ) plummeted 48%. Meanwhile, CleanSpark (CLSK) lost 27%, while Hut 8 (HUT) slumped 43%. Strategy (MSTR), which heavily invests in Bitcoin, also saw a modest dip. 

Datacenter and mining firm Hive Digital Technologies saw its stock slide from $2.97 to $1.45 in Q1, losing more than half its price. Mining hardware producer Canaan Creative also started the quarter at $2.11 and ended at $0.8778 for a loss of nearly 58.4%. 

Analysts warned that worse may be ahead as President Trump’s “Liberation Day” looms on April 2nd, when aggressive tariffs are set to take effect. Tariffs, potential trade wars, and recession fears are driving a retreat from riskier assets.

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