Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drifts higher above $3,050 amid escalating US-China trade tensions
- Gold price gains momentum to near $3,080 in Wednesday’s late American session.
- Trump announced a stay on tariffs for all countries except China.
- Traders brace for the US CPI inflation data, which will be released later on Thursday.
The Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher to around $3,080 during the late American session on Wednesday. The safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions between the United States and China provides some support to the precious metal.
US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he authorized a 90-day pause on new tariffs for most US trade partners to 10% to allow trade negotiations with those countries. However, Trump raised the tariffs imposed on imports from China to 125% “effective immediately” due to the “lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets.”
The economic uncertainty and the fears that Trump’s tariff policies would trigger inflation and dampen economic growth boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. "Ultimately gold continues to be seen as a hedge against instability here. We got a situation where tariffs are becoming a big problem, and you have inflationary expectations going higher, and that's manifested by higher yields," said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.
Traders will keep an eye on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, which is due later on Thursday. Any sign of a hotter-than-expected outcome, could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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